The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) recently concluded a conference that addressed a number of key issues for Latin American meat importers while updating its members on promotional activities for U.S. pork, beef and lamb in a variety of international markets.
A text released by the organization provides information on pork production, inventories and market prospects in the U.S. and the European Union through 2023. According to the material, U.S. beef production is declining due to drought, but pork production is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, while poultry production is expected to reach record levels in 2023.
A U.S. pork supply advantage is also seen due to declining EU production. The article also notes that pork prices are not at their highest levels, but could rise as seasonal demand increases and global supplies become constrained. Marketable pork inventories are up 0.2% year-over-year, but input costs are impacting expansion.
In addition, production is expected to rebound modestly in 2023, based primarily on growth in the second half of the year. Pork production in 2022 is expected to trend lower for the second consecutive year, but is up 1 percent year-over-year due to higher slaughter (up 1.6 percent year-to-date) but lower weights. Pork exports are also expected to rebound for the U.S. in 2023, with EU production down 4%.
Based on the analysis of the text provided, we can conclude that the U.S. meat market could see an increase in beef and pork prices over the next 3 months due to the drought-related reduction in production. Pork production is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, although the market currently expects lower prices than last year. Seasonal demand could also push prices higher in the short term. It is important to note that production costs remain high and inflation continues. In addition, the decline in pork production in the European Union may favor the U.S. supply of pork, which could affect market prices.
In summary, beef and pork prices are expected to rise over the next 3 months, although it is important to monitor changes in production and production costs.
Below is a file released by USMEF for download:
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